As-of Settlement Date: 2026-10-11 | Current Target Rate: 2.25% | Next Decision Implied: 2.38% (+13.4 bps)
Bank of Canada (BoC) Implied Policy Path
Overnight Target Expectations & Probabilities from MX 3-Month CORRA Futures
Implied Policy Rate Path
Target Rate Probability Distribution
Probability Matrix
| meeting_name | BoC Decision: Apr 28, 2027 | BoC Decision: Dec 08, 2027 | BoC Decision: Dec 09, 2026 | BoC Decision: Jan 27, 2027 | BoC Decision: Jul 21, 2027 | BoC Decision: Jun 02, 2027 | BoC Decision: Mar 03, 2027 | BoC Decision: Oct 27, 2027 | BoC Decision: Oct 28, 2026 | BoC Decision: Sep 08, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| target_rate | ||||||||||
| 2.25% | 2.09 | 0.00 | 25.06 | 10.72 | 0.81 | 1.28 | 4.12 | 0.00 | 46.4 | 0.00 |
| 2.50% | 12.38 | 3.01 | 50.29 | 35.86 | 5.77 | 8.39 | 20.37 | 3.09 | 53.6 | 3.79 |
| 2.75% | 28.91 | 10.59 | 24.66 | 39.32 | 17.30 | 22.50 | 37.18 | 10.80 | 0.0 | 12.69 |
| 3.00% | 33.35 | 21.21 | 0.00 | 14.10 | 28.27 | 31.63 | 29.64 | 21.51 | 0.0 | 23.88 |
| 3.25% | 18.99 | 26.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.16 | 24.56 | 8.69 | 26.82 | 0.0 | 27.61 |
| 3.50% | 4.27 | 21.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.35 | 9.99 | 0.00 | 21.67 | 0.0 | 20.08 |
| 3.75% | 0.00 | 11.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.72 | 1.66 | 0.00 | 11.33 | 0.0 | 8.97 |
| 4.00% | 0.00 | 3.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.68 | 0.0 | 2.26 |
| 4.25% | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.0 | 0.00 |