European Central Bank Implied Rate
Interactive ECB policy path and meeting-by-meeting Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) probabilities derived from 3-Month €STR Futures (ST3) on Eurex via Regularized Weighted Linear Least Squares (WLS) curve deaveraging.
Implied Deposit Facility Rate Path
ECB Meeting Probabilities
Probability Summary Data
| meeting_name | ECB: Apr 29, 2027 | ECB: Dec 17, 2026 | ECB: Feb 04, 2027 | ECB: Jul 22, 2027 | ECB: Jun 10, 2027 | ECB: Mar 18, 2027 | ECB: Oct 28, 2027 | ECB: Oct 29, 2026 | ECB: Sep 09, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| target_rate | |||||||||
| 2.50% | 1.3% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 9.6% | 0.7% |
| 2.75% | 15.7% | 86.5% | 55.9% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 25.3% | 8.2% | 90.4% | 8.8% |
| 3.00% | 38.8% | 4.3% | 36.9% | 29.5% | 33.6% | 48.4% | 25.2% | - | 26.5% |
| 3.25% | 33.6% | - | 1.7% | 34.6% | 34.8% | 23.1% | 33.3% | - | 33.8% |
| 3.50% | 10.2% | - | - | 19.2% | 15.5% | 1.0% | 22.5% | - | 21.6% |
| 3.75% | 0.4% | - | - | 5.1% | 2.6% | - | 8.3% | - | 7.3% |
| 4.00% | - | - | - | 0.6% | 0.1% | - | 1.7% | - | 1.3% |
| 4.25% | - | - | - | 0.0% | - | - | 0.2% | - | 0.1% |