As-of Settlement Date: 2026-10-11 | Current Policy Rate: 1.25% | Next Meeting Implied: 1.25% (+0.4 bps)
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Implied Policy Path
Policy Rate Target Expectations & Probabilities from JPX/OSE 3-Month TONA Futures
Implied Policy Rate Path
Target Rate Probability Distribution
Probability Matrix
| meeting_name | BoJ Meeting: Apr 28, 2027 | BoJ Meeting: Dec 18, 2026 | BoJ Meeting: Jan 22, 2027 | BoJ Meeting: Jul 30, 2027 | BoJ Meeting: Jun 18, 2027 | BoJ Meeting: Mar 19, 2027 | BoJ Meeting: Oct 29, 2027 | BoJ Meeting: Oct 30, 2026 | BoJ Meeting: Sep 17, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| target_rate | |||||||||
| 1.25% | 4.54 | 34.64 | 14.69 | 1.84 | 2.79 | 7.93 | 1.15 | 98.4 | 1.34 |
| 1.50% | 21.85 | 64.33 | 47.23 | 10.98 | 15.20 | 32.26 | 7.49 | 1.6 | 8.50 |
| 1.75% | 37.81 | 1.04 | 37.49 | 26.08 | 31.68 | 41.97 | 20.08 | 0.0 | 21.97 |
| 2.00% | 28.01 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 31.74 | 31.78 | 17.57 | 29.05 | 0.0 | 30.20 |
| 2.25% | 7.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 21.02 | 15.49 | 0.00 | 24.82 | 0.0 | 23.94 |
| 2.50% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.26 | 3.02 | 0.00 | 12.81 | 0.0 | 11.00 |
| 2.75% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.90 | 0.0 | 2.74 |
| 3.00% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.0 | 0.00 |