As-of Settlement Date: 2026-10-11 | Current Bank Rate: 3.75% | Next Meeting Implied: 4.04% (+28.9 bps)
Bank of England (BoE) Implied Policy Path
Deaveraged Policy Expectations & Probabilities from ICE 3-Month SONIA Futures
Implied Policy Rate Path
Target Rate Probability Distribution
Probability Matrix
| meeting_name | BoE Meeting: Apr 29, 2027 | BoE Meeting: Dec 17, 2026 | BoE Meeting: Feb 04, 2027 | BoE Meeting: Jul 29, 2027 | BoE Meeting: Jun 17, 2027 | BoE Meeting: Mar 18, 2027 | BoE Meeting: Nov 04, 2027 | BoE Meeting: Nov 05, 2026 | BoE Meeting: Sep 16, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| target_rate | |||||||||
| 4.00% | 1.76 | 41.86 | 15.41 | 0.78 | 1.10 | 4.07 | 0.57 | 84.4 | 0.62 |
| 4.25% | 12.34 | 50.28 | 44.96 | 6.24 | 8.40 | 23.21 | 4.75 | 15.6 | 5.17 |
| 4.50% | 31.43 | 7.86 | 34.67 | 19.61 | 24.33 | 42.24 | 15.90 | 0.0 | 16.99 |
| 4.75% | 35.58 | 0.00 | 4.97 | 31.16 | 34.04 | 26.83 | 27.80 | 0.0 | 28.90 |
| 5.00% | 16.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 26.83 | 23.80 | 3.66 | 27.79 | 0.0 | 27.68 |
| 5.25% | 2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.37 | 7.56 | 0.00 | 16.35 | 0.0 | 15.20 |
| 5.50% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.78 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 5.63 | 0.0 | 4.66 |
| 5.75% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.09 | 0.0 | 0.73 |